Is it possible to predict with a high degree of confidence how you’ll do in your most important race every season? I believe it is. Of course, without a crystal ball you’re never going to be able to predict with 100% confidence, but I think it’s possible to get a strong sense of how well you will do.
The SportTracks Performance Predictor plugin your get your predicted performance using various models. So far the plugin implements the Dave Cameron and Pete Riegel models to predict your performance, but the developer expects to add more.
What does it do?
Ever wondered after running a killer race, how well you would perform at other distances. This plugin does this by using various models. So far the plugin implements the Dave Cameron and Pete Riegel models to predict your performance, but I expect to add more.
The Dave Cameron model works as follows:

Here dold and told both refer to the race you use as input to the model; i.e., the distance and time of the race. By selecting dnew at various distances we can calculate the predicted time at these distances tnew.
Once you have understood the Dave Cameron model, it should be easy understand the Pete Riegel model as well:

You may think that these models seem arbitrary, but they do, however, fit to a certain extent, in my experience. If you are interested in analysis of your best performances this sort of plugin should definitely also be a part of your SportTracks plugin setup.
It is possible to use this plugin in conjunction with the High Score plugin. The way it works is that for each distance you are interested in seeing the predicted time, this plugin finds all sub parts of activities that are X percentages of the distance. For example, if percentage is 40% the Performance Predictor plugin will use the High Score plugin to find the fastest 4k part of a track to predict a time for a 10k race. Similarly, for a 40k race it would find the fastest 10k subpart of a track.
Training
Besides predicting times the plugin also give suggestions regards to training. These suggestions are based on Jack Daniels’s training philosophies. Currently, the plugin suggests training paces, pace for tempo races, interval split times, temperature impact, and weight impact.
How do I use it?
Go to the activity detail view and select the Performance Predictor plugin from the menu as shown in this figure:
Here is a couple of images of the plugin in action:
Training suggestions:
Edit function:
It is possible to add and remove the distances that the plugin use in its calculation by going to the settings panel for the Performance Predictor plugin as shown in this figure:
On a non-technical level three rule -of-thumb predictors generally hold the secret to how you are likely to do in the big race.
- How did your training go in the 12 weeks leading up to the race?
- How well do the course and conditions match your strengths?
- How much do you want it?
Similar Posts:
- How to Train for a Triathlon : Training for the Triathlon Run
- How to Train for a Triathlon : The Triathlon Bike Workout
- 2009 Great North Run – Heart Rate
- Is the Ultramarathon the next challenge?
- How The Glycaemic Index(GI) Can Help Your Performance
Related Reading:
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2 Comments for How to Predict Peak Performance
robthompson | November 6, 2009 at 8:42 am
Guy_LePage | November 18, 2009 at 6:01 am
Just published: How to Predict Peak Performance: Is it possible to predict with a high degree.. http://bit.ly/11zTc1 (via @robthompson)
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
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Just published: How to Predict Peak Performance:
Is it possible to predict with a high degree .. http://bit.ly/11zTc1
This comment was originally posted on Twitter