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 How to Predict Peak Performance

Is it possible to predict with a high degree of confidence how you’ll do in your most important race every season? I believe it is. Of course, without a crystal ball you’re never going to be able to predict with 100% confidence, but I think it’s possible to get a strong sense of how well you will do.

The Wizard

The SportTracks Performance Predictor plugin your get your predicted performance using various models. So far the plugin implements the Dave Cameron and Pete Riegel models to predict your performance, but the developer expects to add more.

What does it do?

Ever wondered after running a killer race, how well you would perform at other distances. This plugin does this by using various models. So far the plugin implements the Dave Cameron and Pete Riegel models to predict your performance, but I expect to add more.

The Dave Cameron model works as follows:

davecameron How to Predict Peak Performance

Here dold and told both refer to the race you use as input to the model; i.e., the distance and time of the race. By selecting dnew at various distances we can calculate the predicted time at these distances tnew.

Once you have understood the Dave Cameron model, it should be easy understand the Pete Riegel model as well:

peteriegel How to Predict Peak Performance

You may think that these models seem arbitrary, but they do, however, fit to a certain extent, in my experience. If you are interested in analysis of your best performances this sort of plugin should definitely also be a part of your SportTracks plugin setup.

It is possible to use this plugin in conjunction with the High Score plugin. The way it works is that for each distance you are interested in seeing the predicted time, this plugin finds all sub parts of activities that are X percentages of the distance. For example, if percentage is 40% the Performance Predictor plugin will use the High Score plugin to find the fastest 4k part of a track to predict a time for a 10k race. Similarly, for a 40k race it would find the fastest 10k subpart of a track.

Training

Besides predicting times the plugin also give suggestions regards to training. These suggestions are based on Jack Daniels’s training philosophies. Currently, the plugin suggests training paces, pace for tempo races, interval split times, temperature impact, and weight impact.

How do I use it?

Go to the activity detail view and select the Performance Predictor plugin from the menu as shown in this figure:

ActivityDetailView How to Predict Peak Performance

Here is a couple of images of the plugin in action:

TimePredictionChart How to Predict Peak Performance
TimePredictionTable How to Predict Peak Performance

Training suggestions:

Training How to Predict Peak Performance
TrainingInterval How to Predict Peak Performance
TrainingTemperatureImpact How to Predict Peak Performance
TrainingTempoPace How to Predict Peak Performance
TrainingWeightImpact How to Predict Peak Performance

Edit function:

EditFunction How to Predict Peak Performance
EditFunctionResults How to Predict Peak Performance

It is possible to add and remove the distances that the plugin use in its calculation by going to the settings panel for the Performance Predictor plugin as shown in this figure:

Settings How to Predict Peak Performance
 How to Predict Peak Performance

On a non-technical level three rule -of-thumb predictors generally hold the secret to how you are likely to do in the big race.

  1. How did your training go in the 12 weeks leading up to the race?
  2. How well do the course and conditions match your strengths?
  3. How much do you want it?
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2 Comments for How to Predict Peak Performance

robthompson | November 6, 2009 at 8:42 am

Just published: How to Predict Peak Performance:

Is it possible to predict with a high degree .. http://bit.ly/11zTc1

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

Guy_LePage | November 18, 2009 at 6:01 am

Just published: How to Predict Peak Performance: Is it possible to predict with a high degree.. http://bit.ly/11zTc1 (via @robthompson)

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

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